You Are Not Behind. You Are Just Navigating.

Chad Cox • August 1, 2026

Should you buy or sell a home in Greater Phoenix right now? Yes, if you move with a plan instead of a prediction. Conditions vary block by block, so the metro headline matters less than your own numbers. Buyers have real negotiating room this summer. Sellers who price to current comps still sell.

There is a conversation I keep having with people right now.


It usually starts with something like: "We were going to buy last year, but then rates went up." Or: "We want to sell, but we are not sure this is the right time." Or sometimes just: "Everything feels unstable. We are waiting."


I understand that. A lot is moving at once. Freddie Mac put the average 30 year fixed mortgage at 6.66% on July 30, 2026, up from 6.58% the week before and just under the 6.72% of a year ago. That is four straight weekly increases, and it lands in a season when most people already feel behind. Talk to your lender about what any of that means for your specific file, because your number will not match a national average.


Here is what I want you to know. You are not alone in that feeling. And waiting for certainty is not a strategy. It is postponing the decision until the uncertainty gets a different name.


What actually works in a shifting market?


Preparation beats prediction. That is the short version.


Tina Tamboer, senior housing analyst with the Cromford Report, made a point in January 2026 that has held up. She noted that in early 2025 rates fell sharply and buyers did not rush in, because they wanted to see whether rates would keep dropping. Her read was that stability matters more than direction. People move when they believe the number they see today will still be there tomorrow.


That is why chasing a rate target tends to backfire. The buyers and sellers I watch navigate this well do three things instead.


They get clear on what they can actually absorb, not what they are approved for. They write down a Plan A and a Plan B, so a market move does not turn into paralysis. And they separate their personal timeline from the market timeline. The market does not know your lease is up in October, or that your family outgrew the house two years ago.


Is Greater Phoenix a buyer's market or a seller's market?


Both, depending on where you stand. That is the honest answer, and it is the one that matters most right now.


The Cromford Market Index for the Greater Phoenix metro sits near 81 in late July 2026. On that scale, anything below 90 is a buyer's market, 90 to 110 is balanced, and above 110 favors sellers. So the metro headline reads buyer friendly.


But that single number flattens a lot of ground. Cromford tracks the 18 largest cities in the region separately, and through the spring those cities were split across all three categories at once, with some in seller's territory, some balanced, and some clearly favoring buyers. Parts of the East Valley have stayed competitive in specific price bands. Several outer suburbs, where new construction sets the comps, have real slack.


This is why a metro statistic is a poor substitute for a conversation about your street and your price point.


What should buyers actually do?


Focus on the moves that hold up regardless of which way rates go next.


Buyers have more leverage than they have had in years, and sellers are meeting them. Tamboer reported that more than half of Greater Phoenix transactions between $200,000 and $600,000 now include concessions, and that builders have extended closing cost help and buydowns longer than many expected. That is real money, and most buyers never ask for it.


So, four moves:


- Get a full pre-approval, not a pre-qualification. Know your number precisely.

- Ask your lender to price a builder buydown against a straight offer, side by side, on your actual scenario. Do not guess at it, and do not take the builder's math as the only math.

- Look at the longer hold. If you plan to stay five years or more, the rate at close carries less weight than people assume.

- Build in buffer. Do not stretch to the ceiling of your approval.


What should sellers actually do?


Price to the last 90 days of closed comps, and prepare the home like buyers have options, because they do.


The pricing conversation is harder this year than the headline suggests. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index had Phoenix down about 1.65% year over year in its spring 2026 reading, while the national average was up roughly 0.85%. Phoenix is lagging the country on that measure. At the same time, resale activity has been steady. Both things are true, and a seller who prices off 2022 memory will sit while a neighbor who prices off current comps closes.


Condition matters more than it did in 2021 and 2022. And know your net before you list, meaning what you actually walk away with after fees, repairs, and your next move. That number matters more than your list price.


Why does Greater Phoenix specifically hold up?


Because the demand underneath the noise is not fragile.


The Cromford Report counted 37,670 homes sold across Greater Phoenix in the first half of 2026, up 3.9% from the same period in 2025 and the strongest first half in several years. That is not a market seizing up. That is a market transacting at a normal pace with more negotiation in it.


The longer story is regional. Christine Mackay, president and CEO of the Greater Phoenix Economic Council, has pointed to the region passing 5.2 million residents, with growth concentrated in Pinal County and the West Valley, and to a deliberate rebuild of the area's semiconductor, healthcare, and advanced manufacturing base. Those are wage-growth sectors, and wage growth is what supports housing over a decade rather than a quarter.


That does not make every neighborhood a sure bet. Real estate stays local and specific. But when your decision spans five, ten, or fifteen years, short term noise does not erase the fundamentals underneath it.


You do not need the perfect moment. You need a clear path.


The people I work with who feel best about their decisions, whether the market moved with them or against them afterward, are the ones who went in with a plan. They knew what they were optimizing for. They knew what they were willing to trade. They had a path that accounted for more than one outcome.


That is what I am here to help build. Not hype, not pressure, and not a pitch about buying before it is too late. Just a clear look at your situation and your options.


If you are weighing a decision, or you just want to know what your specific street and price point look like right now, reach out. No agenda. Just a conversation.


Frequently asked questions


Is now a good time to buy a home in Greater Phoenix?

It can be, if you buy with a plan and a horizon of five years or more. The Cromford Market Index for the metro sits near 81 in late July 2026, which is buyer's market territory, and more than half of transactions between $200,000 and $600,000 include seller concessions. Your timeline and your finances matter more than predicting the next rate move.


Should I wait for mortgage rates to drop before buying?

Waiting for a specific rate is a gamble, and Cromford analyst Tina Tamboer has observed that buyers respond to stable rates more than falling ones. Freddie Mac put the 30 year average at 6.66% on July 30, 2026. What matters is what a lender can actually do with your file, so start there rather than with a headline number.


Is Greater Phoenix a buyer's market or a seller's market?

It is genuinely both, by city and by price band. The metro Cromford Market Index near 81 reads buyer friendly, but Cromford tracks the 18 largest cities separately and they have been split across seller's, balanced, and buyer's conditions at the same time. Ask about your specific area.


How long does it take to sell a home in Greater Phoenix right now?

Longer than it did in 2021, and it depends heavily on pricing. Homes priced to the last 90 days of closed comps and presented well continue to sell. Homes priced to a peak that has passed tend to sit and then reduce.


Who is Chad Cox?

Chad Cox is an independent REALTOR with Realty ONE Group in Arizona, license SA665875000, serving buyers and sellers across the Greater Phoenix metro. He focuses on helping people build a clear plan rather than chase the market.



Chad Cox is an independent REALTOR with Realty ONE Group in Arizona (SA665875000), serving buyers and sellers across the Greater Phoenix metro. Equal Housing Opportunity

Why Now is the Perfect Time to Move to Phoenix

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Discover why the ideal time to move to Phoenix, AZ is now. Perfect climate, thriving job market, and great homes await you!
Homebuyers discussing realtor commissions and market trends with a real estate agent in an office

Exploring Realtor Commissions: Impact on Buyers and Sellers in Today's Market

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How to pack your stuff

By Chad Cox • March 28, 2022
Packing for Success: A Comprehensive Guide to Moving  Moving to a new home is an exciting adventure, but the process of packing can be overwhelming without a solid plan. Whether you're relocating across town or across the country, efficient packing is the key to a stress-free move. In this guide, we'll walk you through the essential steps on how to pack your stuff effectively. 1. Start Early The most important rule of packing is to start early. Give yourself plenty of time to organize, declutter, and pack your belongings systematically. Begin at least a few weeks before your moving date to avoid last-minute chaos. 2. Gather Packing Supplies Collect the necessary packing supplies, including sturdy boxes, packing tape, bubble wrap, packing paper, and markers for labeling. Having the right materials on hand will make the process smoother. 3. Declutter and Donate Before packing, take the opportunity to declutter your belongings. Donate or discard items you no longer need or use. This reduces the number of items you need to pack and ensures you're only bringing what's essential to your new home. 4. Room-by-Room Approach Packing room by room is a systematic way to ensure you don't forget anything. Start with the rooms you use less frequently and leave commonly used spaces for last. Label boxes with the room they belong to, making it easier when you arrive at your new home. 5. Pack Heavy Items at the Bottom When loading boxes, place heavier items at the bottom and lighter ones on top. This maintains balance and prevents damage to fragile items. 6. Wrap Fragile Items Carefully Use bubble wrap, packing paper, or clothing to wrap fragile items like glassware, dishes, and electronics. Pack them snugly in boxes with extra padding to minimize the risk of breakage. 7. Label Boxes Clearly Label each box with its contents and destination room. This makes unpacking easier, as you'll know exactly where each box should go. Consider color-coding or numbering boxes for added organization. 8. Pack Essentials Separately Pack a separate box or bag with essentials you'll need immediately upon arrival at your new home. This can include toiletries, a change of clothes, important documents, and basic kitchen supplies. 9. Disassemble Furniture Take apart furniture if possible, as it makes it easier to move and load into the truck. Keep all screws and hardware in labeled bags to ensure nothing gets lost. 10. Hire Professionals Consider hiring professional movers for heavy or bulky items, especially if you have valuable or fragile belongings. Professional movers have the experience and equipment to handle large pieces safely. 11. Stay Organized Maintain a checklist of all your belongings, especially if you're hiring movers. This helps keep track of items and ensures nothing is left behind. 12. Pack Electronics Properly For electronics, use their original packaging if available. If not, wrap them in blankets or bubble wrap and place them in boxes with padding. 13. Secure Artwork and Mirrors Protect artwork and mirrors with cardboard, bubble wrap, or specially designed boxes. Label them as fragile and ensure they are positioned vertically during transport. 14. Keep Important Documents Separate Place important documents like passports, birth certificates, and financial records in a secure folder or box that you transport personally. 15. Consider Storage If you're downsizing or have items you don't immediately need in your new home, consider renting a storage unit for temporary storage. By following these packing tips, you'll streamline the process and make your move a smoother, more organized experience. Remember, a well-planned and executed packing strategy is the key to a successful transition to your new home. Happy moving!

Features that buyers have come to expect

By Chad Cox • March 28, 2022
Essential Features that Home Buyers Expect in Today's Real Estate Market  In the ever-evolving real estate landscape, homebuyers' expectations have shifted over the years. What was once considered a luxury or optional feature may now be a must-have for many prospective buyers. To help both sellers and buyers navigate this changing terrain, let's explore the essential features that buyers have come to expect in today's real estate market. 1. Updated Kitchen and Bathrooms Modern, updated kitchens and bathrooms are at the top of many buyers' wish lists. Features like granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and contemporary fixtures can significantly impact a home's appeal. 2. Open Floor Plans Open floor plans that create a seamless flow between living spaces are highly sought after. Buyers often prefer homes that allow for easier interaction between family members and guests. 3. Energy Efficiency With a growing focus on sustainability and lower utility bills, energy-efficient features like LED lighting, double-paned windows, and energy-efficient appliances are increasingly important to buyers. 4. Smart Home Technology Smart home technology has become a game-changer. Buyers often expect features like a smart thermostat, home security systems, and pre-installed home automation, allowing for greater convenience and security. 5. Outdoor Living Spaces The desire for outdoor living spaces has surged, particularly since the COVID-19 pandemic. Buyers value properties with well-designed outdoor areas for relaxation and entertainment, such as patios, decks, or landscaped gardens. 6. Home Office or Flex Space Remote work trends have made dedicated home office spaces or flexible multi-purpose rooms a necessity for many buyers. A space that can adapt to their changing needs is highly desirable. 7. Ample Storage Buyers appreciate homes with ample storage options, including walk-in closets, pantry space, and storage solutions in garages or basements. 8. Quality Flooring High-quality, durable flooring, such as hardwood or tile, is often preferred over older, worn-out carpets. Buyers are looking for flooring that not only looks good but is easy to maintain. 9. Curb Appeal A well-maintained exterior and curb appeal are crucial for attracting buyers. This includes landscaping, a well-kept facade, and an inviting entryway. 10. Proximity to Amenities Buyers often seek homes that are conveniently located near amenities like schools, shopping centers, parks, and public transportation. 11. Updated Mechanical Systems Buyers want assurance that the home's mechanical systems, such as HVAC, plumbing, and electrical, are in good working condition. Outdated systems can be a red flag. 12. Safety Features Safety is paramount, so features like smoke detectors, carbon monoxide detectors, and security systems can make a property more attractive. 13. Neutral Color Schemes A neutral color palette provides a blank canvas for buyers to envision their style in the home. Bold or personalized colors may deter some buyers. 14. Quality Materials and Finishes Buyers often look for homes with quality materials and finishes that suggest durability and longevity. 15. Proper Home Maintenance A well-maintained home not only improves the buyer's first impression but also reduces concerns about potential future repairs. While these features are commonly expected by today's buyers, it's important to note that preferences can vary by location and demographic. Sellers and real estate professionals should stay attuned to local market trends and demographics to effectively cater to the desires of their target buyers. By understanding and meeting these expectations, both buyers and sellers can achieve successful and satisfying real estate transactions.